‘Uncomfortably high’: What economists say about the chance of recession.

But the range of their forecasts is wide, from a relatively remote chance of a recession — commonly defined as a shrinking of the economy for two consecutive quarters — to more confident predictions that a downturn is imminent. In general, forecasters who say a recession will be avoided emphasize that they might be too optimistic, while those who are confident that the economy will shrink are quick to say the recession won’t be that…